As the competition between existing LED manufacturers and emerging LED manufacturers intensifies, there is a virtuous cycle of continuous improvement in cost reduction and performance improvement and further expansion of the LED lighting market.
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The rise of the LED market is accelerating
For example, the current price of LED bulbs is less than 4,000 yen, and if the price can be reduced in the same proportion as the cost reduction of LED chips in the future, it can be reduced to 2,000 yen or less. If this price level can be achieved, the possibility of a rapid expansion of the LED bulb market is very high. Therefore, in terms of market share by amount, LED bulbs will go hand in hand with bulb-type fluorescent lamps, and may even exceed bulb-type fluorescent lamps.
LED manufacturers are beginning to launch new technologies urgently. All technologies used for LEDs such as chips, phosphors, and packages are being improved at the same time. This results in higher cost and performance improvement rates than in the past. The figure is based on data from the LED Lighting Promotion Conference (JLEDS).
In addition, fluorescent LEDs (straight tube type) are currently not as economical as fluorescent lamps, but by 2011, due to the cost reduction and performance improvement of LEDs, it is possible to achieve economics comparable to fluorescent lamps. That is to say, the initial cost of the fluorescent lamp type LED is relatively high, but if the long life and low power consumption can reduce the electricity cost and the like, the overall cost of the consumer may be lower than that of the fluorescent lamp.
Although many lighting manufacturers and LED manufacturers believe that LEDs can't see the results when they replace fluorescent lamps, if they achieve a cost of 0.5 yen/lm and a performance of 200 lm/W in 2011, they are expected to replace fluorescent lamps. Consumers are paying more attention to this aspect, which is an excellent opportunity to expand the market. Cost reductions and performance improvements will further expand the LED lighting market.